Happy 7th Birthday for the Economic Expansion?
Submitted by CARPE DIEM
We’re very likely in a recession now, but since it hasn’t yet been offically announced by the NBER, let me wish the current U.S. economic expansion a “Happy Seventh Birthday”!
According to the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, “a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in November 2001. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion.” So the current economic expansion actually started in November 2001, and therefore the 7th year of the expansion started a month ago, and until the officical decision is announced we’re in the 86th month of an economic expansion.
The NBER’s historical business cycle data show that the average economic expansion since WWII lasted 57 months (4 years, 9 months). In that case, the current expansion is more than two years longer than the average expansion, depending on when the NBER decides the next recession starts.
Prediction: The U.S. economy entered a recession in either September or October of this year, it will last about 10 months through June or July 2009, and the NBER will officially announce the recession in the spring of 2009. In that case, I’ll retract the Happy 7th Birthday greetings on this post.
