B.J. Upton: One Step Back, Two Steps Forward
Submitted by Imaginary Diamond Blog
The outlook is not so bright now, but could be exponentially better in the long-term for Tampa Bay Rays outfielder B.J. Upton.
After battling a shoulder injury for much of the 2008 season, he had surgery this winter to repair a torn labrum. The Tampa Tribune reports that Upton may not be ready for opening day
, but he should be in much better position to produce when he returns.
One of the least recognized elements of fantasy baseball is a depleting, but not crippling, injury. The disappointing numbers — .273, 9 home runs, 67 RBIs — will wear on those who owned Upton last season, and his draft stock will plummet since last season.
But because Upton didn’t miss time during the season, his injury struggles will be overlooked by many. Don’t make that mistake. This is the same guy who went on a power rampage in the Rays’ run to the World Series and ripped 24 homers in 129 games during the 2007 season. If his shoulder is right, he can very easily eclipse 25 home runs.
Though Upton will lose second base eligibility, he should still be penciled in as a late-third or early fourth round draft choice. Even in that range, Upton could be a steal. If he re-discovers his power stroke and continues some improvement trends, ‘09 will be a career season.
We like the chances of that happening. We’ll pin his power outage on the bad shoulder and look at the much improved plate discipline (65 BBs to 154 Ks in ‘07, 97-to-134 in ‘08) and spike in stolen bases (22 to 44) as major pluses. Upton remains a 30-30 threat, even if last season’s numbers don’t suggest it.
